The #1 Predictor of Trading Success

professional trader

Recently, I was invited to a small meeting at a prominent Australian prop firm. This firm has trained and funded hundreds (possibly thousands) of successful Futures traders over the last decade. They later adapted to become the largest Crypto Prop Shop in the world during the BitMEX heydays. These industry leaders know what it takes to become a successful trader, and I’ve had the privilege of being in a room with them on a few occasions.

During this particular meeting, the conversation touched on perhaps the biggest question in trading: What is the #1 predictor of a successful trader? The consensus was unanimous: Screen Time.

What is Screen Time?

Screen Time refers to extended exposure to markets. In a prop training program, aspiring traders who consistently show up to the markets every day, working on trading drills, exploring strategies, and actively engaging in the program over weeks and months are the most likely to succeed at trading.

Key Components of Effective Screen Time:

  • Working with real money in live markets
  • Developing personal trading strategies
  • Adhering to risk parameters
  • Managing intraday positions sensibly
  • Avoiding trading on tilt (to fight another day)
  • Establishing an intuition for specific market dynamics

The goal of maximizing engaged screen time allows traders to gradually develop and evolve their own profitable strategies, and this can take weeks or months. Generally the prop firm would expect traders to be making money within a few months before increasing their risk profile, or suggesting a different career.

Why is Screen Time Crucial for Success?

Developing a personal trading strategy requires a solid understanding of market dynamics e.g. what makes your markets tick and how do they respond to news, price levels, profile levels, large orders, different market phases and liquidity and so on. Trading a strategy requires skills in working orders and managing positions (see our Prop Shop Trading Drills). These all take time to develop, and consistency in this process is going to make a big difference on the outcome.

A Thought Experiment: The Golf Analogy

Consider two newbies to golf who both want to be competitive in one month:

Newbie A:

  • Tries to play every day, but with no set schedule
  • Chooses courses based on convenience
  • Gets frustrated after a few bad swings
  • Often cuts the game short, heading to the clubhouse for a beer
  • Blames poor performance on weather conditions or physical discomfort

Newbie B:

  • Arrives 15 minutes before the course opens each day
  • Warms up with practice shots and putting
  • Tees off at 9 AM sharp
  • Documents performance on each hole
  • Commits to finishing the entire course, regardless of performance
  • Reviews the game and notes areas for improvement

Clearly, Newbie B is likely to have a much better outcome. The key reasons? More experience and a professional approach. How can you translate this to your approach to trading?

Conclusion

Sitting at the trading screens consistently each day certainly has its own set of challenges and distractions. However, approaching trading with a professional mindset and playing the long game to maximize your exposure to markets will significantly improve your chances of success in this challenging field.

For clear instructions on how to use Screen Time effectively while developing as a trader, check out our Prop Shop Trading Drills or some of the great free content put out by Jigsaw Trading and No BS Day Trading.

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